Debt Deflation and Crisis

When analyzing debt and economic growth, usually only government debts are examined. They are seen as a corollary to economic crises, devaluation of currencies, and government defaults -- and while I'm not going to dispute or discuss these claims here in this post, perhaps on a later day, I will say that they are misleading trends of analyses in relation to the current financial crisis. There is another 'kind' of debt that is up for discussion and more pertinent to the crisis of 2007 -- credit market debt, which consists of domestic non-financial sectors (household debt, business/corporate debt, and government debt) and domestic financial sector debt.

This explosion of credit began around the time of the institution of 'Reaganomics,' where individuals took to lending and spending over saving despite stagnant wages. 

 

A more detailed look of the trend since 2002, with its peak. The shaded area depicts the length of the recession.

 

However, the above graphs show the total credit market debt. Broken down, household (consumer) credit debt depicts the same trend.

What does all this mean? Fundamentally, this means that the expansive economic growth of the previous three decades were on shaky footing to begin with, likely leading to the global economic collapse that followed. The impact of the credit boom since the 1980s is described in an article by the research institute Center for American Progress (CAP) by Christian E. Weller. He writes:

"The debt is highest among the middle class. Middle-income families before the crisis had a debt-to-income ratio of 155.4 percent in 2007, the last year for which data are available, for families with incomes between $62,000 and $100,000, which constituted the fourth quintile of income in our nation in 2007. This ratio is higher than for any other income group. Families in the top 20 percent of income (with incomes above $100,000) had a ratio of debt to income of 123.6 percent, and families in the third quintile (with incomes between $39,100 and $62,000) owed 130.7 percent of their income. Households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution (with incomes below $39,100 in 2007) owed well below 100 percent of their income."

Shocking as it is, this is the not the first time such a credit upsurge occurred. There was a similar phenomenon that occurred before the Great Depression of the 30s. Samuel Brittan, in his review of Richard Duncan's 'The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy,' writes:

"It is certainly striking how both the 1929 Wall Street crash and the 2007-08 financial crisis were preceded by a huge credit explosion. Credit market debt as proportion of US gross domestic product jumped from about 160 per cent in the mid-1920s to 260 per cent in 1929-30. It then fell sharply in the 1930s to its original position. Later it surged ahead in two upswings after 1980 to reach 350 per cent of GDP in 2008."

The corresponding graphic, using the analysis by Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Investment Officer from TCW:

This analysis of crises in relation to credit market debt is attributed to economist Irving Fisher, and his ideas were largely ignored in favor of mainstream Keynesian view of economic crises, which argued that they were caused by an insufficiency of aggregate demand. Since the recent economic crash of 2007, Fisher's ideas have enjoyed a resurgence in economic thought. His theory on debt deflation has been of significant fascination in the heterodox Post-Keynesian school of economics, and is now beginning to enter the mainstream. Economist Paul Krugman discusses Fisher's ideas in one of his posts on his blog "Conscious of a Liberal" in the NY Times -- below is the graphic taken from the article (with added information).      

                         

Since the total credit market debt owed has been stagnant since late 2009, reaching its 'peak,' and if GDP steadily keeps rising, it is likely that debt deflation will occur all the same as it did during the Great Depression. However, the issue of private debt and its hindrance on the consumer is still an issue -- and if spending is ever to increase significantly, the issue of wages and consumer debt must be addressed.
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- An analysis of the total credit market debt by Crestmont Research. 

The American Phenomenon

In 1893, Frederick Jackson Turner presented his landmark essay "The Significance of the Frontier in American History" to a gathering of academics at the World's Columbian Exposition. Turner, in his thesis, argued that the unique American frontier experience shaped the United States' development and created a distinct culture and political condition. In essence, the frontier was responsible for molding the American character into what it is. 

While his thesis certainly stands true, the "Old West" also brought with it an economic anomaly -- a differentiating aspect that made the United States' economic upbringing particularly strange. From its colonial origins and throughout the 1800s, the U.S economy was consistently plagued with shortages of labor. These shortages would influence the development of slavery in the South, where plantation owners find it necessary to import more slaves to sustain their agricultural output. These shortages would also be the reason for the influx of immigrants throughout the 1800s, from which stemmed the extreme prejudice from nativists once some forms of unemployment actually became evident.

The above graph depicts estimates made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, they are relatively high due to the impossibility of knowing the actual levels of unemployment. Little surveying was done, regional statistics were not kept, and much of the American population was self-employed. This makes assessing the unemployment rate during this period of exceptional American growth difficult. And further complications arise when youth employment is added into the calculations --  which customarily started the from age of 10 in most areas. Since not all households required their children to work, making fully accurate estimates is nearly impossible. 

However, given the growth of American industry during the 1800s, basic assumptions can be made. For one, the inventiveness of the U.S industrial economy can be properly explained if the labor shortages are taken into account. Because of the lack of labor in the United States, industrial capitalists had to rely on new technology to be able to increase their output and balance the lack of laborers. From this predicament, the American System of Manufacturing, as it was called, was developed. Because of its efficiency, it was revered amongst industrialists in Europe. The most important contribution being -- the creation of interchangeable parts. This allowed industry to drastically increase their output and keep costs to a minimum. This also coincided with the high degree of mechanization that was starting to take root in the United States with the beginnings of the first Industrial Revolution.

Much of this technological advancement was also a product of the contention between agricultural and industrial regions during the United States' great economic expansion. Although these clashing interests date far back to colonial times, the creation of the General Land Office  in 1812 was a turning point. This independent federal agency was responsible for distributing and surveying public domain land in the largely unexplored territories of the United States. Two laws in particular addresses the rationing of these lands -- the Preemption Act of 1841 and the Homestead Act. The former was passed to ration pieces of the uncultivated territory at a price. Up to 160 acres could be purchased at a time, and at very low prices. It was done to encourage those already occupying federal lands to purchase them. The Homestead Act, first enacted in 1862, was similar in its intent. Its aim was giving applicants roughly 160 acres of land free of charge west of the Mississippi River. Now, northern industrialists not only had to deal with labor shortages -- they also had to satisfy their workers enough so they would not opportunistically leave and go westward. 

The frontier experience did much more than cultivate the unexplored land westward; it intensified the shortages of labor in the United States. This scarcity created an inventive industrial sector that had to compensate by developing new technology, which would ultimately lead the United States to the economic dominance it enjoys today. Economist Richard Wolff, in a few of his lectures and writings, theorizes that it was this remarkable condition that created a very different experience for those living in the United States.

"What distinguishes the United States from almost every other capitalist experiment is that from 1820 to 1970, as best we can tell from the statistics we have, the amount of money an average worker earned kept rising decade after decade. This is measured in “real wages,” which means the money you earn compared to the prices you have to pay. That’s remarkable. There’s probably no other capitalist system that has delivered to its working class that kind of 150-year history. It produced in the U.S. the expectation that every generation would live better than the one before it, that if you worked hard, you could deliver a higher standard of living to your kids."

Frankly, Wolff's analysis makes sense. Rising wages kept the worker class's morale high, and attracted immigrants -- it also served as an incentive for working people to stay as laborers rather than receive land and move westward.  So, fundamentally speaking, American employers experienced competition in the labor market for two specific reasons. One, the federal land programs provided incentives for workers to move westward and entrepreneurs had to provide reasons for them to stay and work in the form of higher wages. And second, since the labor supply was constantly in high demand, workers were not easily replaceable. This implicitly forced firms to increase their wages, to attract laborers to their respective industries. 

In 2006, Michael Lind published an article in the Financial Times titled "A Labour Shortage Can be a Blessing," which indirectly supports Wolff's thesis on wages. He writes: 

"In the ageing nations of the first world, the benefits of a labour shortage, in the form of higher productivity growth and higher wages, might outweigh the costs. Where labour is scarce and expensive, businesses have an incentive to invest in labour-saving technology, which boosts productivity growth by enabling fewer workers to produce more. It is no accident that the industrial revolution began in countries where workers were relatively few and had legal rights, rather than in serf societies where people were cheaper than machines."

In order to validate Lind's and Wolff's claims, two specific economic topics must be properly historically analyzed. The first one being -- is there evidence for such a labor shortage, and if so, how severe was it?

Given the estimates made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it would be safe to assume that unemployment was not a major issue during the 1800s. When youth employment is taken into consideration, the estimates become very inflated, since the labor pool was so large. However, beside macroeconomic analysis, there are specific scenarios which shows that such a dilemma in production was indeed persistent in the United States during the 19th century. The PBS television series "American Experience" gives one particular scenario during the construction of railroads in the 1860s that validates this assumption.

"In early 1865 the Central Pacific had work enough for 4,000 men. Yet contractor Charles Crocker barely managed to hold onto 800 laborers at any given time. Most of the early workers were Irish immigrants. Railroad work was hard, and management was chaotic, leading to a high attrition rate. The Central Pacific management puzzled over how it could attract and retain a work force up to the enormous task. In keeping with prejudices of the day, some Central Pacific officials believed that Irishmen were inclined to spend their wages on liquor, and that the Chinese were also unreliable. Yet, due to the critical shortage, Crocker suggested that reconsideration be given to hiring Chinese..."

Historian Rickie Lazzerini portrays a similar issue in Cincinnati, Ohio during the beginning of the 1800s. 

"...the busy industries created a constant and chronic labor shortage in Cincinnati during the first half of the 19th century. This labor shortage drew a stream of Irish and German immigrants who provided cheap labor for the growing industries."

The second question that must be asked is -- was there actually a persistent increase in wages during the 1800s? 

To properly answer this question is immensely complex, since such little data is available. However, there exists one specific academic paper on the subject that addresses this question and the one posed prior. In 1960, economist Stanley Lebergott authored a chapter addressing wages in 19th century United States in a full volume called "Trends in the American Economy in the Nineteenth Century" published by the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth. The chapter itself was titled "Wages Trends, 1800 - 1900." He writes:

"Associated with the enormous size of these establishments was the
need to draw employees from some distance away. Local labor supplies
were nowhere near adequate. One result was the black "slaver's wagon"
of New England tradition, recruiting labor for the mills. The other was
the distinctly higher wage rate paid by such mills in order to attract
labor from other towns and states. Humanitarian inclinations and the
requirements of labor supply went hand in hand. Thus while hundreds
of small plants in New York, in Maine, and in Rhode Island paid 30 to
33 cents a day to women and girls, the Lowell mills generally paid
50 cents" [451].

Regions that lacked adequate quantities of labor had to rely on larger wages to attract workers from afar. However, apart from the industrial north of the United States, farm wages also increased -- perhaps signifying a competitive rift between the agricultural sectors and the industrial ones. 

Professor Lebergott, later in his analysis, then provides the full wage computations that he was able to calculate given individual data and trends recorded by local media. He combined the data he acquired on a state by state basis, starting locally and then branching out to create a national average. Also note, the drop in wages between 1818 - 1830 he attributes to "the close of the Napoleonic Wars and the end of the non-importation agreement."

Based on economist Stanley Lebergott's analysis, Richard D. Wolff's assertions are validated; the United States, for the most part, did enjoy increasing real wages throughout the 19th century. Even more so, it goes further in proving Michael Lind's claim that shortages of labor can indeed cause wage increases and heighten technological innovation. It is very likely that the combined frontier experience and shortages in the production processes created a unique variant of capitalism that was unique to the United States. It gave American households the confidence that if they worked harder, they would earn a better living. It also gave to them the optimism that their children would enjoy a better standard of living.

This unprecedented century of growth and success also had often overlooked impact on the American psyche. Because of the inflated expectations, it instilled a unique mentality amongst working class Americans. As John Steinbeck put it, the poor don't see themselves as victims -- but rather as "temporarily-embarrassed millionaires." It is this aspect of the American psyche that has allowed the broken system to flourish in the decades since the persistent stagnation of wages of the 1970s. Admitting the issue is just to difficult, for some; if we believe enough, the American dream just might become real again, as it was for those traveling out West to find riches and fortunes. In retrospect, the sooner working class Americans awake from this fantasy, the sooner they will realize that times have changed -- and not in their favor.

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- A lecture where Wolff discusses the frontier experience and 19th century wage increases.

- Some statistics and fact on U.S economic growth during this time period.

- A decent article on this topic from the Wall Street Journal (you need a subscription to view it).

The Credit Illusion

It seems that the United States has grown economically, for the most part, throughout all of its history. And for much of its history, this growth was accompanied by corresponding increases in real wages. It was assumed that with economic growth, the purchasing power of your wage for all your hard work would pay off and it would increase with time; it was part of the American Dream.

Ever since the 60s, real wages have remained mostly stagnant  - even taking a downward trend in the past year. Although maybe our nominal wages have increased, our real wages have remained the same and even more alarming the purchasing power of income has plummeted. Even worse so, the price of food and energy has gone up in recent years and we're still working the same amount of hours, sometimes more. Where is the improvement and, most importantly, why is the middle class shrinking? Although all this issues would usually mean a rise in unionization amongst workers and rallies to demand for higher wages/benefits and perhaps more equal distribution of wealth, as happened during the Great Depression and the 1910s, union membership has actually paradoxically decreased in the last 50 years.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that only 6.9% of workers in the private sector are union members. 

Although I've oftentimes heard the right demonize unions as dangerous to the delicate fabric of a free market, and oftentimes advocate enacting legislation to curb their power, there is no question the decrease in union membership has had a direct effect on the concentration of wealth in the United States and the middle class share of aggregate income. Here is are the results that were found by Karla Waters and David Madland of the at the Center for American Progress (CAP):

Now, before I get to the credit illusion, which is likely the culprit, first we have to dispel a few arguments against the stagnation of real wages in the United States - three of them specifically I want to talk about;

Q: Well, maybe workers' productivity has not increased and their real wages are a direct result of a stagnation in their output?

This cannot be true, hourly outputs per workers have actually been steadily increasing. This is based on information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis; there is indeed a growing gap between output and real wages: 

Q: The average income per household has gone up, isn't that inconsistent in the stagnation of real wages? 

No, it is not. The Second Wave of feminism, which started in the early 60s, brought many more women to the workforce. It's not that the workers are bringing more real income home, it's that more people are working in the household. In an article in the journal article by Rebecca A. Clay of the American Psychological Association:

In 1940, according to the Employment Policy Foundation's Center for Work and Family Balance, 66 percent of working households consisted of single-earner married couples. By 2000, that percentage had dropped to less than 25 percent. By 2030, the center estimates, a mere 17 percent of households will conform to the traditional "Ozzie and Harriet" model.

It is this phenomenon that has caused an increase in average income per household - there are now many more new sources income per family, but that doesn't necessarily tell us anything about the average real wage for each individual bringing it home.

Q: You are not adding benefits to the real wage. The Bureau of Labor statistics has shown there has been a upward trend in real compensation per hour since the 1940s. Does this not explain the stagnation of wages?

It is true there has been a steady increase of real compensation (wages + benefits) per hour, below is a graph taken from the Bureau of Labor Statistics;

However, we have to look at this data with the increase in workers' output rather than by itself. Since the year 2000, there has been especially a disconnect between real compensation per hour and output. 

But this disconnect in average hourly compensation and productivity started far before the 00s; it actually began in the late 70s and got progressively worse since the Reagan years. Below is a graph from the Economic Policy Institute;

And although this graph does not show the growing gap between productivity and average hourly compensation since '07, it has gotten much worse since then. So yes, average hourly compensation has been increasing but not as nearly as the same rate as productivity has. 

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Now, for the topic of this post which may actually be shorter than the background information; Why aren't the workers mobilizing and demanding higher wages as they did in the first half of the 20th century? There are many reasons; one being the destruction of unionism during the Reagan years and another being the of spending money you don't actually have; the illusion of credit. Ever since real wages have become stagnant and the sharp decline of unionization in the 80s, there has been a sharp increase in household debt in the United States, which actually dissuades workers from demanding higher wages in some respects. It is this exploitative dichotomy that has kept corporate profits high and wages low; all in the guise of "buy now, pay later!" and 'economic growth.' 

Below is a graph of household debt versus persona savings taken from 'The Basis Point,' a blog by mortgage banker Julian Hebron:  

Here is a chart taken from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. It was a study pertaining to the entire United States:

Why is the middle class shrinking and being anesthetized by credit? It is this type of behavior that drives society outside of its means and gives it working class families the false perception that their wages are increases; maybe nominally they are, which is deceptive in itself, but the main hurdle we must overcome is realizing the distraction of mass consumption by credit going forward. This requires questioning this entire system which has, for the most part, become based on credit and money yet to be paid. I highly fear the collapse of this 'credit culture' and the shaky foundation it is built on; And perhaps worst of all, we are unjustly condemning future posterity to debt bondage. What happened during the crisis of 2008 we may find to become a staple in the modern 21st century economic model; and since debt wasn't properly liquidated, worse may be yet to come. The functionality of such an illusionary market method I am highly skeptical of, and its outcome will most definitely hurt the current mainstream liberal capitalist model.